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An Example Of An Upgrade To Sell Into I love the analyst community. While, certainly, more than a few analysts often will be contrarian and give buy or sell recommendations when a stock is at or near its top or bottom, many times analysts are late. Analysts, despite what some might wish, are people too, and it is all too easy to keep your job by not taking any major risks. To me, the recent upgrade of Altria (NYSE:MO), stock trading today at around $31 a share, by Wells Fargo, to outperform, with a price target of 31 34 dollars a share, is a prime example of this. To be clear, I have recommended a number of tobacco stocks for some time, first recommending Lorillard (NYSE:LO) at around 80 dollars a share nearly a year ago. I also think Altria is a great stock to own if you are happy getting a 4 5% a year return. However, well Altria may be a safe stock to own for those simply looking for a dividend payout above what the fixed income market currently offers, the arguments made by Wells Fargo for why the company's share should continue to move higher are not very good in my opinion. While Altria has been strong performing stock over the past couple years, the stock has also underperformed their smaller and faster growing peers like Lorillard. Now, Wells Fargo primary reason for upgrading the stock is their argument that Altria is that their new brands Marlboro Black and Marlboro Special Blends will likely stabilize the company's continued market share losses. tobacco market is around 42%. So, a company that pays a 5% dividend and has 42% of the market it competes in should be bought since they are stabilizing their market share? A couple problems exist with this argument in my opinion. First, Altria is primarily if not exclusively bought for the company dividend. While the company has consistently raised its dividend by around 7 10% over the last several years, analysts did not suggest that the dividend will move up ahead of recent schedule. tobacco market to really strengthen their position significantly. Third, why wasn't Altria upgrade after the fourth quarter earnings report? The company, which almost always comes with 2 3% of the quarterly and annual guidance the company frequently gives, gave guidance for the entire 2012 year during their fourth quarter earnings call. If Wells Fargo knew what the company was likely to make for the entire year of 2012 nearly two months ago, why the upgrade just a week ago? Finally, fourth, if the analysts really believe that these market share gains are likely to produce significant near term returns, why are you raising the price target from where the stock is trading today by less than 10%? Also, while I'm not a conspiracy theorist, with the S 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) up nearly 30% for the year, more than a couple wealth management firms are likely looking to park some money in safer companies during a period of frequent seasonal weakness in the market. While Altria will likely be safe investment for years to come, tobacco stocks are still more risky than many fixed income investments. As Altria's yield falls to less than 5% as the share price appreciates, it is worth asking if a 4% yield in a company growing at less than 10% a year will be to attract significant new capital.